Editor’s Note: This editorial is the last in a series that looks at the challenges of tackling the growing federal debt and the specific programs that drive it. Previous installments covered the debt problem, Social Security, Medicare, veterans’ benefits, farm bill subsidies, defense spending, nondefense discretionary spending and tax reform.
The federal debt is on course to rise from 98 percent of gross domestic product at present to 115 percent by 2033, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office. This represents a slight improvement over its trajectory before the bipartisan debt limit deal President Biden signed June 2, but a risky level all the same. It’s nine percentage points above the previous record of 106 percent just after World War II. Debt levels this high force government to divert vast resources from potentially productivity-enhancing public investments to interest payments and, over time, could slow economic growth and increase the chances of a fiscal crisis, as the CBO warned in its latest long-term forecast for the budget and economy, published June 28.
The United States faces this predicament because of two principal factors. One is Congress’s chronic failure to match outlays to revenue by spending cuts, tax increases or some of both. The other is the inherent difficulty of the challenge, given an aging population’s demands for health care and other services, combined with this country’s global security responsibilities; even with a more determined Congress, it would be hard to identify $8 trillion in savings, which is how much it would take just to keep debt at its current share of GDP over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
- D.C. Council reverses itself on school resource officers. Good.
- Virginia makes a mistake by pulling out of an election fraud detection group.
- Vietnam sentences another democracy activist.
- Biden has a new border plan.
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We’ve confirmed that for ourselves over the past four months, during which we have researched, debated and presented a series of proposals for reining in deficits and debt. The conversations around our table were intense at times, reflecting what were often differing but deeply held value judgments. Then, after publication of each installment, readers registered reactions that were usually thoughtful, occasionally praiseful, frequently critical and at times vitriolic.