It’s too soon to say we’ll avoid hitting the debt ceiling, but it’s not too soon to say how we’ll avoid hitting it if we do. Miscalculations by the Democrats and ideological changes among the Republicans have paved the way to a deal.
None of this panned out, and Democrats have been slow to adjust as the failure of their initial strategy became clear.
The reason it didn’t pan out is that today’s Republicans aren’t like the tea party Republicans of 10 years ago. They are more eager to hand liberals defeats and less eager to see major reductions in the size of the federal government. The Democrats’ unrealistic insistence that there could be no negotiations over the debt ceiling gave the Republicans an opportunity to notch a political victory. The fact of a deal has now largely replaced the substance of a deal as the Republican objective. This version of the GOP savors the fight but is flexible about its resolution.
Which suits the skill set of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) just fine. In contrast to Biden, McCarthy grasped the political situation correctly, to an extent that surprised and elated his doubters. Republicans hung together and passed their own debt ceiling increase — one that did not touch entitlements — and it reset the politics of the fight in their favor. After Republicans acted, the pressure was on Democrats to make a counteroffer. Democrats started to second-guess one another, with some urging Biden to make a prime-time address that would supposedly galvanize public opinion. (It’s not clear any televised presidential speech has ever moved opinion enough to matter on Capitol Hill, but one certainly wouldn’t now.)